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11.
ABSTRACTThe objective of the curve-fitting method is to determine the optimal distribution by parameter estimation. The selection of the parameter estimation methods and the determination of the parameter estimation results may vary according to the different aims of the curve fitting, as well as the different accuracies and positions of the points. To solve the problem, the fuzzy weighted optimum curve-fitting method (FWOCM) was used to deal with the characters. The deficiencies of the original FWOCM were analysed, and it was found that the membership function and nomograph were unable to effectively deal with the curve fitting. An improved method and its indexes were evaluated, using effectiveness and unbiasedness as the assessment criteria, while scoring and percentage methods were chosen to comprehensively assess the statistical results. Compared with FWOCM, the results showed greater effectiveness and unbiasedness in the improved method. 相似文献
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Yong-Jun Tang Ze-Min Xu Zhen-Chen Shao Zhe Ren Kun Wang Kui Yang Jun-Yao Luo Hai-Yan Gao Lin Tian 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(4):999-1012
Debris-flow runout is a fascinating process to understand due to its implications for downstream alluvial fans. Based on the propagation-deposition behaviors of the Dongyuege (DYG) debris flow, in Yunnan, the effect of biofilms on channel surfaces on debris-flow runout is investigated in laboratory flumes with two different internal surfaces: surfaces are lined with granite slabs (Model I) and gravel (Model II), respectively. Our results show that biofilms can significantly reduce frictional resistance to flows. They increase flow velocities, slow down the deceleration of the snouts, prolong runout distances, and subsequently extend the areas covered with resulting deposits, thus greatly assisting the propagation of experimental debris flows. Slippery biofilms consisting mainly of diatoms and their extracellular mucus (ECM) reduce the contact friction between the flume-beds and the overlying fluids, and greatly promote the propagation of tested flows. Well-developed biofilms are found on the underwater channel surfaces of the DYG Creek. Acting as lubricating layers, they likely played a key role in the DYG debris-flow runout. Most of the debris transported during the DYG event was deposited on overbanks, and the sediment that caused the disaster was transported to the populated fan region through the stream-bed clad in the thick biofilms. Owing to their impacts on the development and width of the temporary debris dam breach, the stream-bed covered with biofilms became a direct contributor to the debris-flow hazard. Because of the ubiquitous presence of biofilms on mountain stream-bed surfaces, the development of perennial streamflows can be viewed as an indicator of gully susceptibility to debris flows threatening creek fans. The underwater areas of pre-event channel cross-sections should be regarded as slip or low-friction boundaries, and the parts above stream-levels can be viewed as no-slip boundaries. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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在全球气候变化和人类活动影响加剧的背景下,作为河口海岸重要子系统的三角洲正在发生快速变化。长江三角洲地处长江入东海交汇处,是中国最重要的经济核心区之一,对邻近区域乃至整个长江经济带经济社会发展都起着重要作用。由于全球变暖、海面上升和强烈人类活动引发了三角洲系统状态转换,因此以往基于恒定系统状态而获得的有关长江三角洲的认识已不能满足未来需求,迫切需要对未来海面变化、极端事件、流域与河口工程影响下的三角洲物质循环条件、物理过程、地貌冲淤演化、源-汇格局调整等科学问题进行深入研究。在三角洲系统行为、未来演化趋势的预测能力建设中,应重视从海面到海底的综合立体观测系统的发展,以获取关键数据;基于三角洲系统的时、空演化特征,建立三角洲本征态和衍生态的谱系理论。未来需针对系统状态转换而调整原先的经济社会发展模式,以便保护自然资源、重建生态系统,更好地支撑长江经济带发展,重绘长江三角洲发展蓝图。 相似文献
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区域地热特征及深部温度估算对于油气勘探和地热能资源评价和开发利用具有重要意义,长江下游地区是我国东部经济社会高度发达的地区,其能源需求大,区域热状态研究能为该区地热资源评价提供关键约束。通过整合长江下游地区已有的温度数据和实测岩石物性参数,勾勒出该区的现今地温场特征,并进一步估算其1 000~5 000 m埋深处的地层温度。研究表明,长江下游地区现今地温梯度为16~41 ℃/km,且以18~25 ℃/km居多,苏北盆地区呈现高地温梯度。大地热流值为48~80 mW/m2,其均值为60 mW/m2,表现为中等的地热状态,有利于油气和地热能形成。此外,长江下游地区深部地温估算表明,1 000 m埋深处的温度范围为30~54 ℃,2 000 m时温度范围为50~95 ℃,3 000 m时温度范围为65~130 ℃,4 000 m时温度范围为80~170 ℃,5 000 m时温度范围为100~210 ℃。区域深部地温的展布趋势呈NE向,高温区域集中在安徽南部和江苏东北部。结合60 ℃和120 ℃等温线的埋深分布及区域地质、地球化学和地热特征,初步探讨了该区油气与地热资源的有利区带及其相应的开发利用类型。 相似文献
16.
The Shenandoah Watershed Study (established in 1979) and the Virginia Trout Stream Sensitivity Study (established in 1987) serve to increase understanding of hydrological and biogeochemical changes in western Virginia mountain streams that occur in response to acidic deposition and other ecosystem stressors. The SWAS-VTSSS program has evolved over its 40+ year history to consist of a temporally robust and spatially stratified monitoring framework. Currently stream water is sampled for water quality bi-hourly during high-flow events at three sites and weekly at four sites within Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), and quarterly at 72 sites and on an approximately decadal frequency at ~450 sites within the wider western Virginia Appalachian region. Stream water is evaluated for pH, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), base cations (calcium, magnesium, sodium and potassium ion), acid anions (sulphate, nitrate and chloride), silica, ammonium, and conductivity with a subset of samples evaluated for monomeric aluminium and dissolved organic carbon. Hourly stream discharge (four sites) and in-situ measurements of conductivity, water and air temperature (three sites) are also measured within SHEN. Here we provide an overview and timeline of the SWAS-VTSSS stream water monitoring program, summarize the field and laboratory methods, describe the water chemistry and hydrologic data sets, and document major watershed disturbances that have occurred during the program history. Website links and instructions are provided to access the stream chemistry and time-series monitoring data in open-access federal databases. The purpose of this publication is to promote awareness of these unique, long-term data sets for wider use in catchment studies. The water chemistry and hydrologic data can be used to investigate a wide range of biogeochemical research questions and provide key inputs for models of these headwater stream ecosystems. SWAS-VTSSS is an ongoing program and quality assured data sets are uploaded to the databases annually. 相似文献
17.
本文在梳理流域地下水资源评价现状及历史的基础上,讨论了水资源评价方法和分区原则,将珠江流域划分为129个四级地下水系统,以地下水系统为评价单元,在充分考虑不同水文地质参数的基础上,分析评价地下水资源量及存在的问题,讨论珠江流域三级阶地不同水流运动特征,阐述了评价的精度以及水利工程对地下水循环的影响。通过本次评价,珠江流域地下水天然资源量1374.16亿m~3,可开采量为578.7亿m~3,开发利用率仅10.01%。珠江流域跨度较大,水动力特征迥异:上游云贵高原深切峡谷区、中游桂中峰丛洼地区、下游冲洪积平原区,据不完全统计,珠江流域蓄水量大于100万m~3的水库32座,水利工程的修建以及水库对水资源调蓄和分配给地下水资源评价带来一定困难,不同部委对地表水和地下水概念上的分歧导致二者间流域边界不一致以及流域水资源评价结果的差异,为此提出了解决问题的建议,以期为地下水开发利用与治理保护服务。 相似文献
18.
The release of excessive anthropogenic nitrogen contributes to global climate change, biodiversity loss, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Despite being an urgent global problem, the excess nitrogen is not governed globally. This paper considers possible governance options for dealing with excessive nitrogen through target setting, which is an approach commonly adopted to address global environmental problems. The articulation of the nitrogen problem and the numerous international institutions dealing with it, provide evidence of a nitrogen regime characterised by limited coordination and targets covering sources and impacts only partially. This calls for improving the nitrogen governance in the direction of more integrated approaches at the global scale. In this vein, the paper investigates two opposite governance options – here labelled as ‘holistic’ and ‘origin-based’ – and evaluates them for their capability to define solutions and targets for human-induced nitrogen. From the analysis, it emerges that origin-based solutions can be preferable to holistic solutions as they can be more specific and potentially have greater immediate results. Independent from which governance arrangement is chosen, what matters most is the speed at which an arrangement can deploy solutions to combat (fast-growing) nitrogen pollution. 相似文献
19.
Changes of Late Mesozoic Tectonic Regimes around the Ordos Basin (North China) and their Geodynamic Implications 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
A synthesis is given in this paper on late Mesozoic deformation pattern in the zones around the Ordos Basin based on lithostratigraphic and structural analyses. A relative chronology of the late Mesozoic tectonic stress evolution was established from the field analyses of fault kinematics and constrained by stratigraphic contact relationships. The results show alternation of tectonic compressional and extensional regimes. The Ordos Basin and its surroundings were in weak N-S to NNE-SSW extension during the Early to Middle Jurassic, which reactivated E-W-trending basement fractures. The tectonic regime changed to a multi-directional compressional one during the Late Jurassic, which resulted in crustal shortening deformation along the marginal zones of the Ordos Basin. Then it changed to an extensional one during the Early Cretaceous, which rifted the western, northwestern and southeastern margins of the Ordos Basin. A NW-SE compression occurred during the Late Cretaceous and caused the termination of sedimentation and uplift of the Ordos Basin. This phased evolution of the late Mesozoic tectonic stress regimes and associated deformation pattern around the Ordos Basin best records the changes in regional geodynamic settings in East Asia, from the Early to Middle Jurassic post-orogenic extension following the Triassic collision between the North and South China Blocks, to the Late Jurassic multi-directional compressions produced by synchronous convergence of the three plates (the Siberian Plate to the north, Paleo-Pacific Plate to the east and Lhasa Block to the west) towards the East Asian continent. Early Cretaceous extension might be the response to collapse and lithospheric thinning of the North China Craton. 相似文献
20.